The Bitcoin price against the US Dollar (BTC/USD) attempted to move over US$35,000 on July 12, 2021. However, it couldn’t and was only able to reach 24-hour high at US$34,460.30. After its unsuccessful attempt of moving over the strong resistance at the US$35,000 level, the BTC price kept dropping. Today, the combination of low volumes and mounting shorts made the BTC/USD pair fall below the support level near the US$33,000. Bitstamp’s data shows that the BTC/USD pair hit a local low at US$32,880. Currently, the bitcoin price is down by around -3.5% in the 24-hourly chart.
While most analysts were upbeat about the prospect of BTC’s short-term gains. They went on to predict a short-term target of US$38,000. Michaël van de Poppe, a popular day/swing trader of cryptocurrencies, wearily told his Twitter (@CryptoMichNL) followers that: “I'm getting to the stage that I'm quite done with this range on Bitcoin.”
Even as the crypto market moves range-bound, some traders and analysts say that there could be snap price movement. John Wich, a well-known crypto trader, said in a series of tweets that he has been able to locate a rare signal in Bitcoin that could lead to snap price movement of BTC. He said:
“We have now entered a zone of coiled up volatility indicated by the yellow shading… The VIOLENT move is incoming & imminent. This tells you it’s time to start paying attention. It can resolve as a squeeze breakout or fakeout in the coming weeks.”
Though squeeze can make the price fluctuate both upwards or downwards, Wick believes that the recent accumulation of Bitcoin price, as well as the increasing strength of the US$30,000 support, could lead to a frantic price movement upwards.
Analyst Allen Au has witnessed similar bullish patterns currently that was last seen back in 2013 and 2017. With the critical support at US$31,000, Allen Au believes that the ongoing accumulation and the significant fall in the volatility of BTC prices is the sign of the calm before the storm. He believes that there could be a significant bullish momentum after the change of two market components: volatility and volume. Both the volatility and volume of BTC are significantly less currently, especially in the daily and weekly charts. A pseudonyms trader named Income Sharks said:
“Second time getting a 4h Supertrend rejection. With volume this low and lower volatility it tends to favor more downside. Higher volume and volatility favor upside.”
As per the data of Glassnode’s Net Transfer Volume from Exchanges for the last 2-weeks, around 2,000 bitcoins left these platforms every day. In fact, the BTC-based derivatives also remained relatively quiet after May’s “Great leverage flush back”. Glassnode Insights’ analyst Checkmate said:
“Since the sell-off in May, futures open interest has remained bound between $10.7B and $13.0B with only a handful of notable builds or declines within that range. Open interest remains 57% below the ATH set in April as Coinbase went public.”
Though the analysts remain divided in predicting when the bullish momentum will start, everyone agrees that a big move had started to form and the next 60-days is going to be wild.
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